2018 results: Russian car market grew by 12.8%
For the second year in a row, the Association of Russian Businesses (AEB) has recorded an increase in sales of new cars. Moreover, in both cases, progress is expressed in two-digit numbers: plus 11.9% in 2017 and plus 12.8% in 2018.
Despite successes, market players are pessimistic. Before the prosperity of the Russian economy - as before the moon. Cars are bought more with last money or on credit. It is banks that pull statistics in plus. The conditions for issuing car loans are not chic, but more than half of the buyers find them acceptable. Those who are willing to make the lion's share of the cost of the car as a down payment can even count on installments or a minimum percentage.
Last year was the first in recent history that dealers lived without large-scale state support programs. And nothing! In 2017, about 45% of Lada cars were sold using such support, and in 2018, almost without it, AvtoVAZ showed positive dynamics. In short, there is no money, but somehow we hold on.
Opposite charges
Many brands increased sales in 2018 at an accelerated pace. Kia climbed a quarter, Skoda - 31%. Mitsubishi - record holder: plus 87%! Cassu continues to do Outlander; it is not distinguished by either beauty, youth or technical sophistication, but demand for it has grown by 45%.
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In the second half of the table, absolute sales are small, but the dynamics of Honda (+ 110%) and the Chinese brand Zotye (Zoti; + 192%) are still amazing. Honda has only CR-V and Pilot in its lineup - not new and expensive. Three times Zotye's progress is a mystery. Even among Chinese brands, this is a dark horse. There are no advertisements or high-profile presentations, but there were 3, 175 who wanted to play Chinese roulette for their money.
Not all companies are doing cloudless. In the Renault-Nissan alliance, only Lada increased its market share. Nissan grew by only 6%, and with the progress of the entire market by almost 13%, this means a reduction in share. Renault with its state employees stomps on the spot for absolute sales, which also led to a decrease in the share. Datsun is down 16%. This year, the lineup update is not expected, so the future of the brand looks uneasy.
Two more Russian plants are also rolling down. UAZ lost 1%, and the joint venture GM-AvtoVAZ with the old "shnivy" - more than 6%.
Amid the friendly growth of the premium segment, Audi stands out with a result of minus 4%. Lexus confidently settled third behind Mercedes and BMW. Audi needs to think about expanding the model line towards more affordable versions: now many models have at least 340 horsepower, and this is a problem even for the executive A8 sedan and Q8 coupe-crossover, not to mention the A6 sedan. For success, the latter needs an engine of forces for 190-200, then you can think about fighting on equal terms with the "five" BMW and Mercedes E class.
From the unexpected - the sudden departure in the middle of the year of the just-growing Ravon brand and the rise in demand for the Chrysler Pacifica minivan at a price of over 4, 000, 000 rubles: in 2018, 74 Pacificos were bought compared to nine a year earlier. When (and if) Ravon restarts in Russia, there will be no previous prices for these cars, and without an obvious price advantage the Uzbek Chevrolet will not be easy to find buyers for the first freshness.
Deserved
On the first line of the model standings is the parade of planets. Previously, Lada invariably stayed on top, rarely replacing each other. Now there are four different leaders in four years! The Grant era ended in 2015. After it, Hyundai Solaris (2016) and Kia Rio (2017) climbed to the top of the podium - for the first time in the history of the domestic market, foreign cars held onto the “golden” position.
Well, Vesta brilliantly ended the year 2018, which became truly epoch-making for AvtoVAZ. The victory can be called strong-willed, because Vesta was ahead of Rio only in September, when the Koreans were already looking forward to the second triumph in a row.
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Another paradox under current economic conditions. Among the twenty-five most popular models, only fifteen are cheaper than a million rubles in starting or in all trim levels, the remaining ten will start from 1.1–1.5 million. The most affordable of them are Skoda Octavia and Nissan Qashqai, and with them Toyota Camry and as many as seven C-class crossovers.
By the way, in the crossover segment there is a large-scale redistribution of spheres of influence. Volkswagen Tiguan in 2017 almost tripled in sales, but Toyota RAV4 then managed to maintain leadership in the class. Last year, Toyota surpassed not only Tiguan, but Sportage, which became more popular by a third. Burst into the top 25 Hyundai Tucson, whose customers almost doubled. This year Toyota should launch a new RAV4 in Russia - the struggle will become even more interesting.
Crossovers are pushing cars ever more insistently. If in the class the positions of sedans are still very strong, then in the segments C and D in the tops there is only one representative left: Skoda Octavia and Toyota Camry.
Kia Ceed and Optima occasionally make their way to the list of 25 best, but can not gain a foothold in it. The rest only dreams of such success. In the recent 2012 Ford Focus sold more than 92 thousand cars! And now we have the entire golf class to this level barely reaches.
Sad trends
Over the mark of "100, 000 cars sold" exceeded the entire top three. In 2016-2017, no one succeeded, and such that more than two models reached six-digit sales, the last time happened in 2012.
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And that's bad. The share of several individual models in the Russian market is becoming more significant. And since the demand for other cars is falling, there is an increasing chance that manufacturers will remove them from the supply program. This process has been very active in the past four years.
If the situation does not change, in a few years we will be left with a couple of dozen budget sedans and relatively inexpensive crossovers and a premium cohort for the elite. And the entire middle class (both in price and in size) will die out due to lack of demand. Take a look at the graphs: in the pre-crisis years 2012–2014, the share of the top five models was 19–20%, in the landslide 2015, it soared by more than six percentage points and today it walks around 25%.
According to the forecasts of AEB, in the current year sales will grow, but insignificantly - by about 3.6%. This means that during the year, Russians will buy about 1.87 million cars. We agree with this forecast: the limit of expectations is plus 5%. Modest, very modest.
But it is better than falling.