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Stop On Demand: Why Are Car Holidays Such Long Holidays?

2024

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Video: Stop On Demand: Why Are Car Holidays Such Long Holidays?

Video: Stop On Demand: Why Are Car Holidays Such Long Holidays?
Video: Holidays: problems and complaints 2024, March
Stop On Demand: Why Are Car Holidays Such Long Holidays?
Stop On Demand: Why Are Car Holidays Such Long Holidays?
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Sales of Lada cars have been growing steadily for 1.5 consecutive years, but AvtoVAZ introduced additional downtime days at the production sites before the New Year holidays. First of all, from December 19, the B0 line was stopped, on which the platform models Lada XRAY and Largus, Renault Logan and Sandero, Nissan Almera are produced. From December 22, the assembly line for the assembly of Lada 4x4 SUVs and Priora sedans froze. The last Kalina and Grant cars this year, as well as the on-DO and mi-DO Datsun platform platforms, were released on December 27, according to the order of the AvtoVAZ president about the plant’s work in December, a copy of which was at the disposal of Interfax.

AvtoVAZ refused to comment on the work schedule of the enterprise, citing the fact that this is internal company information. At the same time, the press service of the Za Rulem. RF plant assured that on New Year's holidays the dealer network will be provided with the necessary volume of cars.

“Annual production shutdowns are necessary for equipment maintenance. Dealers are always warned about them in advance, and when the conveyor is idle, they will receive previously assembled cars located at the plant’s storage sites,”confirms Igor Bader, Lada sales director at Terra-Auto Group of Companies. According to him, production is planned in such a way as to prevent the appearance of large remnants of “last year’s cars”.

Change of registration

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Meanwhile, during the coming New Year holidays, AvtoVAZ will be engaged in the transfer of production of the Lada Granta liftback from the Izhevsk Automobile Plant to Tolyatti, where this model sedan is produced. The release of liftbacks at AvtoVAZ facilities is scheduled to begin in February 2018. In this regard, there may be a shortage of Granta five-doors in the coming months, so dealers who want to become owners of the model are advised to rush the purchase to take advantage of a wide selection of colors and trim levels.

In turn, moving the Lada Granta liftback to Tolyatti will allow the Izhevsk Automobile Plant to free up capacity to increase production of the flagship model Lada Vesta, which in November became the brand’s best seller. In many ways, this was made possible thanks to the entry of the Lada Vesta SW station wagon and its off-road version of the Vesta SW Cross. New items caused a rush of demand, for which AvtoVAZ, it seems, was not ready. In the salons of a number of dealers only demo samples remained, and the lines for these models were lined up for several months in advance.

In addition, in 2018, the production of two new Lada Vesta modifications should begin at the Izhevsk Automobile Plant. According to Interfax sources, this will be an off-road version of the sedan, which will receive a special body kit, increased ground clearance and larger wheels, as well as a sports version of the model.

Closed for prevention

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It is worth noting that AvtoVAZ is not the only car factory whose workers went to rest earlier than the whole country. So, from December 25, the annual New Year's holiday began at the Moscow Renault plant, which will return to work on January 9. According to the company’s press service, “Behind the wheel of the Russian Federation”, dealers' inventory exceeds monthly sales, which ensures a sufficient number of cars in stock.

Mazda Sollers will not produce cars at the same time - on the last working week before the New Year holidays, scheduled maintenance of equipment is carried out here.

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In January, the Ulyanovsk Automobile Plant will extend the New Year holidays for two weeks to modernize the quality audit lines and the test line, as well as conduct an annual inventory and a set of repair and maintenance work. According to UAZ press service, “At the wheel of the Russian Federation”, in December 2017, the supply of cars was increased due to a planned stoppage of production. In particular, dealers are provided with the required number of UAZ Patriot SUVs, the demand for which has been growing in recent months. But at UAZ Pickup, which has become the sales leader in its segment since September, there is a slight deficit, but by February 2018, the plant plans to even out the situation.

Meanwhile, GM -AVTOVAZ, Avtotor, and the St. Petersburg plants Nissan and Hyundai do not plan additional downtime and will rest in accordance with the approved holidays - from December 30 to January 8 inclusive. About this “Behind the wheel. RF” was reported in the press services of enterprises, noting that the suspension of production for the period of the New Year holidays will not affect the availability of the required number of cars from dealers.

According to Victoria Sinichkina, director of PwC in Russia, as a rule, demand in the post-New Year period, as well as in summer holidays, is the most moderate, which is why scheduled conveyor stops are usually made at this time. During the formation of production production schedules, these stops are agreed in advance, and as a result, they do not have any significant negative impact on sales or fulfillment of obligations to dealers.

In turn, consultant analyst Frost & Sullivan Ivan Kondratenko notes that recently, downtime has been used by Russian car factories to prevent potential overproduction, when the market situation remained uncertain and demand was not stable. “In 2017, when the market stabilized and began to grow, some automakers nevertheless began to leave early for the winter holidays, but most of them continued to work non-stop until the New Year. I do not think that we should expect significant problems with the availability of cars at the beginning of next year. The market at this time will slow down somewhat due to a seasonal decrease in purchasing activity and the cancellation of many state programs to support demand,”the expert predicts.

Abroad will help us

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Meanwhile, in the past year, the Russian auto industry began to recover from the crisis, following the market demand, increasing the production of passenger cars for the first time in five years. As predicted by ASM Holding, by the end of 2017, 1.33 million cars will go off the assembly lines of our country - 18% more than last year. At the same time, the car market itself will grow even to a lesser extent - a little more than 10%. Good support was provided to enterprises by export deliveries, which over the 10 months of 2017, according to the Federal Customs Service of Russia, increased by 28%, although their share in total production remains insignificant - less than 10%. Under these conditions, some Russian car factories, such as AVTOVAZ, Nissan and Ford Sollers, returned to their full work schedule and began to introduce additional production shifts, for which they resumed hiring workers.

In the past year, the range of Russian-assembled cars began to expand again. For example, among the new products of Avtotor - from the new K ia Picanto to the premium Genesis G80 sedan. Skoda launched the production of the updated best-selling Rapid and Octavia in Russia, and in 2018 will begin production of the Kodiaq SUV. At the Mazda Sollers plant, the assembly of the new generation Mazda CX-5 crossover has started. Kaluga PSMA Rus mastered the production of a restyled Peugeot 408 sedan and returned the Mitsubishi Pajero Sport SUV to the conveyor. St. Petersburg Hyundai plant switched to the production of new generation Hyundai Solaris and Kia Rio sedans, and the latest model also became available in a new modification - the cross-hatchback Rio X-line. In addition, the Izhevsk Automobile Plant began production of the Lada Vesta SW station wagon.

However, 2017 was not without losses for the Russian car industry. So, the Kaluga conveyor Volkswagen left the Touareg SUV, thus freeing up capacity for the assembly of Audi models. And Nissan, due to low demand, stopped production of the Sentra sedan and the Pathfinder crossover in Russia, concentrating efforts to promote the Qashqai, X-Trail and Murano crossovers, which are manufactured at the plant in St. Petersburg, in the Russian market.

As Ivan Kondratenko notes, many new or returned models in the Russian market belong to the SUV segment, which is actively developing and has further growth potential. The continuation of the trend of expanding the model range of car manufacturers in Russia will depend on the possible growth of the market in 2018. In the event of a repeated recession in sales, players will have to revise their production policies, focusing on the most popular models.

Half-heartedly work

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Despite the begun growth in production, the capacities of car factories in our country are currently only 40% loaded. It is significant that, compared with the pre-crisis 2012, the current output volumes are almost a third lower. And this despite the fact that during the crisis in the Russian car market, the share of locally produced cars rose to a record 82%. For comparison, in the best year for the Russian automobile industry in 2012, when about 2 million passenger cars were produced, the products of domestic enterprises accounted for 64% of all sales. According to PwC's forecast, in the coming years a further recovery of output is expected, which may reach 1.8 million cars by 2021 in the absence of external shocks. However, even in this case, the loading of local plants will not reach 60%, which is not enough for their effective operation.

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At the same time, the relative stabilization of oil prices and the ruble exchange rate create conditions for an increase in the volume of car imports, sales of which over the next three to five years may show a slight increase commensurate with the growth in total passenger car sales in the country. However, achieving a market share of imported foreign cars at the pre-crisis level of 30%, according to PwC, is unlikely in the current regulatory environment, when the Russian authorities are consistently pursuing a policy aimed at supporting local automakers.

According to Natalya Milchakova, deputy director of the analytical department of Alpari, the share of domestic cars in the Russian market has increased during the crisis not so much due to increased demand for the products of domestic enterprises, but due to a reduction in the share of imported cars after the collapse of the ruble. Due to the low demand, the majority of Russian car factories work with underloading and have low profitability. A strong competition between domestic manufacturers and assemblers of foreign cars operating in Russia will exert more negative pressure on it.

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