Prices rolled down
Unlike the market for new cars, where the price tags directly depend on exchange rates, in the secondary market the cost of cars, as you know, is determined primarily by the level of demand. It is significant that since December 2014, when, after the collapse of the ruble, many motorists refused to buy a new car in favor of a used one, the prices for used cars steadily increased. According to the Avtostat agency, used cars have since risen by an average of 32% since then - from 430 thousand rubles in December 2014 to 568 thousand in December 2016. For comparison, the weighted average cost of new cars over the same period increased by 41%, and in the first seven months of this year - by another 3%. At the same time, demand for them began to recover gradually this year (+ 8.5% in January-July 2017), which indicates consumers are getting used to new prices. Against this background, sales of used cars almost stopped growing (+ 0.8% for 7 months of 2017), and this partially affected the level of prices, which for the first time since the end of 2014 began to decline. As of August 2017, the average cost of a used car was 535 thousand rubles against 568 thousand in December 2016, that is, it became lower by 6%. At the same time, cars are sold mainly at discounts that go up to 10-15% of the originally set price tag.
“In recent years, the market for new cars has been declining, and now we are celebrating the aging of the fleet. In this regard, the average cost of a car in the Russian fleet is reduced. At the same time, today we see in the market for new cars an increase in sales of budget models. Most often, their buyers already own an inexpensive car and, buying a new one, sell the previous one. From this, more used-budget cars come to the market,”comments Alexey Barinov, director of the Rolf Blue Fish sales division at Rolf.
Top 10 brands in the used car market, pcs. (data from Avtostat agency)
No. | Mark | 7 months 2017 year | % |
one. | Lada | 806 186 | -1.8 |
2. | Toyota | 330, 099 | -1.6 |
3. | Nissan | 158, 330 | 1.8 |
four. | Hyundai | 131, 837 | 8.6 |
five. | Chevrolet | 126 679 | 2.1 |
6. | Ford | 115 430 | 2.1 |
7. | Volkswagen | 111, 290 | 5.9 |
eight. | Kia | 108, 269 | 11.6 |
9. | Renault | 96 503 | 8.2 |
ten. | Mitsubishi | 88 970 | -2.8 |
Total | 2 946 472 | 0.8 |
Reduced prices for used cars are also observed in the dealership segment, although the pricing of the “officials”, as is known, differs from private sellers and trading platforms, including those included in the cost of pre-sale preparation, checking the legal cleanliness of the car, etc. For example, the average price of used cars sold in 2017 through Avilon Group amounted to 1 million 127 thousand rubles against 1 million 183 thousand rubles a year earlier, thus decreasing by 5%. Director of the Avilon-Trade dealership Yuri Elistratov attributes this to a greater extent to the decline in the purchasing power of the population, lower interest rates on loans for new cars and growing support programs on the part of importers on the primary market.
Nowhere cheaper?
Top 10 models in the used car market, pcs. (data from Avtostat agency)
No. | Model | 7 months 2017 year | % |
one. | Lada 2114 | 87, 213 | -1.1 |
2. | Lada 2107 | 80 228 | -5.4 |
3. | Ford focus | 73, 270 | 2.2 |
four. | Lada 2110 | 67 030 | -5.1 |
five. | Toyota Corolla | 57, 777 | -2.7 |
6. | Lada 2170 | 57 866 | 4, 5 |
7. | Lada 2112 | 49, 076 | -3.6 |
eight. | Lada 4x4 | 53, 764 | -2.7 |
9. | Lada 2115 | 48, 766 | -1.2 |
ten. | Toyota Camry | 42 505 | 28.7 |
The prices for domestic cars, mostly already discontinued, fall most of all, although they are the leaders in sales in the secondary market, and their cost, due to their advanced age, is already the lowest in the market. So, as of July of this year, the Lada 112 hatchback fell 4.9% compared with December 2016, according to Avito Auto. The Lada 115 sedan lost 4.5% in price, and in the summer, the cost of the "tag" for the first time dropped below 100 thousand rubles. The tenth and fourteenth models became cheaper by 3.6% and 4.3%, respectively. The only VAZ car, which, on the contrary, added in price, was the Lada 4x4 SUV, whose cost has increased by 3% since the beginning of the year and by almost 10% compared with the price tag a year ago.
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According to Alexey Barinov, fewer Lada 4x4 cars are left in good condition on the market, and demand for this model remains. Because of this, the buyer is willing to pay more for a decent copy.
Prices for popular mass used foreign cars are also declining, although to a much lesser extent than for Lada. Thus, the Ford Focus, which is a permanent bestseller among used foreign cars, has fallen in price by 1.8% and as of July of this year was offered on average for 382.5 thousand rubles. But the cost of Toyota Corolla, despite a slight decrease in demand, remained virtually unchanged and amounted to 422 thousand rubles (-0.4%).
“Demand may decline, but the decline is most likely correlated with the volume of offers and the cost remains at an adequate level. New Ford cars, for example, in previous years fell sharply in sales and now it’s more difficult to find a good fresh Ford with mileage than three years ago, which helps to increase or maintain its value,”says the director of used car sales at AvtoSpetsTsentr Group Artyom Samorodov
The second life of Solaris
In general, prices for used cars will continue to decline slowly, and you should not expect a trend change by the end of this year, predicted in Avtostat. At the same time, despite the fact that the monthly sales curve of used cars periodically goes into the red zone, the result for 2017 should remain positive. According to the basic forecast, the secondary car market this year may grow by almost 3%, to 5.34 million passenger cars.
Hyundai Solaris demonstrates the best dynamics on the secondary market, obviously due to the large volumes of new cars sold. Hyundai Solaris demonstrates the best dynamics on the secondary market, obviously due to the large volumes of new cars sold.
According to Alexei Barinov, while the fleet continues to age, respectively, the average price of a used car will decrease. At the same time, if we consider the prospects of buying a car of a particular model and a certain age, then its price, as before, will depend on the cost of a similar new car and, accordingly, will grow, following the market for new cars.
The dynamics of prices to a greater extent depends on the seasonal swing in the number of offers, notes, in turn, Artem Samorodov. “A good car will always be in price, a bad one will always be poorly in demand. The picture changes dramatically and sharply only during periods of sharp changes in the currency sector,”he states.
According to statistics, the lack of demand compared to last year is mainly experienced by Lada cars, although AvtoVAZ products are still out of reach in terms of sales. But, for example, the most popular foreign car with mileage Ford Focus shows a slight increase in sales, which allowed her to settle in the top three bestsellers of the secondary car market. The best dynamics turned out to be on the account of the previous generation Hyundai Solaris - its sales for seven months of 2017 increased by 29%, ensuring the models got into the top 10 of the most popular used cars.
Cross worlds
“More often than not, in the used car market, the same models as in the primary market are most in demand. Best sellers of the new car market - for example, today it is Hyundai Solaris - are becoming in demand on the secondary market. If in recent years a lot of cars of a certain model have been bought, then over time they fall into the secondary market and demonstrate large sales there,”comments Alexey Barinov.