Moscow International Business Center "Moscow City"
Almost like in Europe
The most automobile regions in our country are Primorye and Kamchatka, where the provision of cars to the population is at the level of Western Europe. So, according to data from the beginning of 2014, the level of motorization in Primorsky Krai is 572 cars per 1000 inhabitants, in Kamchatka Krai - 458 cars, calculated in Avtostat. The fact is that second-hand foreign cars from Japan are imported through the Far East, while analysts do not exclude the possibility that some of them, “going” deep into the country, remain registered in Primorye and Kamchatka. Real motorization in these regions may be at the level of other rating leaders - 300-350 cars per 1000 inhabitants.
“For a long time, cars with mileage from Asia, primarily from Japan, were available in Primorye and Kamchatka. Now the situation has changed, but people who are used to driving a car are having a hard time parting with their own vehicles, in the worst case scenario they will buy a cheaper car. In addition, these regions, because of their proximity to Japan, are objectively more provided with goods, and car purchases do not have such a significant place in the structure of expenditures of the population,”says Tatyana Lukovetskaya, Director General of Rolf.
provision of auto2
Kaluga Region (344 cars per 1000 inhabitants) took the third place in terms of car provision among Russian regions, thus outstripping the Moscow region (340 cars). It should be noted that Moscow, the largest regional car market, in terms of motorization occupies only the tenth place with an indicator of 311 cars. “The separation between Moscow and the Moscow region can only be considered conditionally: many residents of the Moscow region work in Moscow and use their cars there,” commented Tatyana Lukovetskaya. - Kaluga Region is an economically developed region with its own automobile cluster. Moreover, the proximity of Moscow cannot but affect. Known fact: many people register a car not where they actually live, and do not always register it for themselves. In addition, in such cities as Moscow and St. Petersburg, public transport is well developed, and parking problems are quite acute, so many residents do without a car or keep one car in the family.”
The Kaliningrad region closes the top five in terms of car availability, with 336 cars per 1000 inhabitants. According to Tatyana Lukovetskaya, the Kaliningrad region is a special economic zone, therefore it is easier to buy a foreign car here. In addition, historically in this region there is a larger fleet of foreign cars, including age groups.
The top 10 Russian regions in terms of motorization also included the Pskov region (334 cars), the Republic of Karelia (329), Ryazan and Tyumen regions (312 cars each) and, as already mentioned, Moscow (311).
Petersburg equals London
By the way, the second largest regional car market - St. Petersburg - did not enter the top ten most automobile Russian regions at all. In the personal classification of the northern capital, only the 12th result is 308 cars per 1000 inhabitants. According to Mikhail Chaplygin, CEO of Auto-Dealer-SPb, the fleet of regions that are higher than St. Petersburg is richer in domestic cars - primarily AvtoVAZ products, while in the northern capital the demand structure is more differentiated. “The volume of the premium segment is growing in St. Petersburg, and it, of course, is not as voluminous as the mass market, the development of which is typical for the regions,” the expert says.
In addition, in front of St. Petersburg, mainly regions with a larger area, but a smaller population, continues Mikhail Chaplygin. “Accordingly, the need for movement by car is higher here (this is also associated with the types of economic activity), therefore, the number of vehicles per capita is also greater. In addition, these regions with more developed import of cars - for example, Primorsky Krai, Kaliningrad Oblast, or oil producers with high incomes,”the expert argues.
In his opinion, the level of motorization in St. Petersburg as a whole is not so low. The city’s authorities in its development strategy note that in London, for example, this figure is 350 cars. And it pleases them. Given the current development of transport infrastructure and the policies of the city authorities, which are only now beginning to think about unloading the center, an indicator close to 300 cars, quite suitable for today's Petersburg, is summarized by Mikhail Chaplygin.
Between Libya and Jordan
The average level of motorization in Russia is 317 cars per 1000 inhabitants. At the same time, back in 1997, this figure was much lower - 118 cars, and since then has been steadily increasing. Nevertheless, in terms of the number of cars per capita, Russia is surrounded by countries such as Libya (333) and Jordan (315 cars). And in the global ranking on the availability of cars, our country occupies only 52nd place. At the same time, Russia is inferior even to some states of the former Soviet Union, such as Lithuania (638 cars), Estonia (524) and Latvia (344). However, the level of motorization in the Baltic republics, as well as in Georgia and Armenia and in Soviet times was higher than in Russia as a whole.
Compared with most republics of the former USSR, Russia is distinguished by a higher income level and greater protectionism in relation to used foreign cars, which leads to our country superior in terms of money and lag in quantitative car sales, says Dmitry Kolyakov, senior manager of AT Kearney. “It is necessary to take into account the significant regional heterogeneity of Russia - the reasons that impede the growth of motorization in Moscow are not at all those in Mari El,” the expert is sure. “As a general observation, it can be said that regions with a lower level of motorization are mainly constrained by a low level of disposable incomes, and regions with a high level are constrained by infrastructure issues (traffic jams and parking problems make the car less attractive).”
At the same time, the question of whether the level of motorization in Russia is low for a country with a level of income like ours, the degree of their distribution and way of life remains open. Indeed, in countries where the state does not hinder the import of used foreign cars at all and does not tax them heavily, the level of motorization, as, for example, in Georgia, Armenia and the Baltic states, can be higher even with a comparable or lower income level. However, this state of affairs is rather an exception than a rule. Considerations of infrastructure, ecology and protection of own production make most countries struggle with the unlimited import of used foreign cars, which increases the quality and youth of the fleet, but reduces the nominal motorization. If we compare not the level of motorization per capita, but the sales of new cars, Russia leaves far behind the countries of the former USSR.
Motorization at the limit
But the countries of Western Europe in terms of motorization of the population are about twice as fast as Russia. Iceland leads in this indicator, with 758 cars per 1000 inhabitants. Among the largest car markets in Europe, it is also worth noting Italy (705 cars), Spain (588), France (581) and Germany (579). And the USA is the leader among the world powers in terms of car provision - there are already 801 cars per 1000 Americans.
A rating of regions was compiled according to the number of cars per 1000 inhabitants
Results 2014: to what the Russian car market has sunk
According to Avtostat, even in the absence of growth in the Russian car market, the level of motorization in Russia will continue to steadily increase, and after about 8-10 years it will approach the performance of Eastern Europe - 400 cars per 1000 inhabitants.
When Russia reaches the level of car availability in Western Europe, experts do not undertake to predict. “There probably is no simple answer to this question, but speaking very rudely, it is only when the disposable income and lifestyle in Russia become close to the European ones,” says Dmitry Kolyakov. - With a lag of GDP per capita (and, accordingly, disposable income) on average two times that of the leading countries of Western Europe, a rapid rapprochement in motorization is possible only with strong growth of the Russian economy, smoothing out regional imbalances and reducing income inequality. In some part, this process is ongoing, but it is difficult to predict rapid changes.”
Meanwhile, fleets of developed countries are slowing down due to the high motorization of the population and the saturation of automobile markets. Moreover, in Europe, Japan and the USA, the level of provision of cars to the population is even decreasing, in particular, due to an increase in the costs of owning and servicing a car, including an increase in gas prices, insurance costs and an increase in paid parking. In addition, the process of so-called de-auto mobilization is affected by the growth of the population of large cities, where a developed transport infrastructure is offered.
Given the high degree of motorization of the population, transport problems in developed countries are palpable, despite the best situation with infrastructure, analyst of FINAM Anatoly Vakulenko notes. According to him, awareness of this problem makes municipal and state authorities more actively develop public transport. The increase in the share of people working at home or in the immediate vicinity of the home in the Western countries also has some impact, which is facilitated by the development of information technology and the high share of small businesses, especially in the service sector. In Russia, all these factors are still weak, but their role will gradually increase amid growing motorization and a load on the transport infrastructure, Anatoly Vakulenko sums up.