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Amid the collapse of the European market, the Russian one looks quite strong. In the Old World in 2012 they sold only 12 million cars - 8.2% less than in 2011. This is the lowest figure in 20 years! And the gap is not visible - December in general has become the worst month in the past five years. The only major European market where sales have grown is the United Kingdom: they sold cars 5.3% more than in 2011.
In Russia, car sales grew by 11%; 2 million 935 thousand cars were sold. This is certainly great, but … Compared to 2011, growth rates have tripled (then they reached a record 29%) is not a good sign. In fact, last year also started well: in the traditionally stagnant January, dealers sold 20% more cars than a year earlier. But in the summer, the pace began to slow down and finally soured by the end of the year. In December, growth did not exceed 1%.
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What happened? Why did Russians suddenly massively refuse to buy, although theoretically the demand for cars has not gone away? After all, we still have only 270 cars per 1000 people, while in Europe - 400-600. No one gave an unambiguous answer to this question; there are several reasons for this at once.
Jörg Schreiber, head of the Automobile Manufacturers' Committee of the Association of European Businesses (AEB), believes that our fellow citizens, looking at Europe, are afraid of the return of the economic crisis and refrain from major purchases. In addition, over the year loans on average increased by 1%. It seems to be not much, but now they will have to borrow money at 14-15%.
AvtoVAZ is still the leader: 537 thousand frets were sold. At the same time, their sales decreased by 7%. In Tolyatti they say that they were ready for the drop in demand and will take their toll with the advent of the updated Kalina this year. Well, let's see. In the second place for several years in a row, Chevrolet (+ 18%); behind him in the top three - “Renault” (+ 23%), which, thanks to the super-popular crossover “Duster” returned to its previous position. And in fourth place … no, not the Hyundai, as you might think, but the Kia. This brand again outstripped a relative in sales ratings - thanks to Rio. Volkswagen legitimately climbed from sixth to tenth with its popular Polo. The main crop is now harvested by those who put on modern budget models. But this year the situation may change again, because the Nissan going for the seventh will have a new Almera, and the Skoda that closes the honorary top ten is preparing the Rapid.
Against this background, the former noticeable players look rather dull, who for various reasons have lost popularity. Less than 10, 000 cars on the account of Fiat and ZAZ - their sales fell 3.5 and 2.5 times, respectively. The decline in the Italians was due to a break with Sollers and a sharp reduction in the dealer network, while Ukrainian cars rose significantly after the introduction of the recycling fee.
In the standings of models, the Lada-Priora has now become the most popular car in Russia (last year - second place), although the general trend of decreasing demand for outdated AvtoVAZ products also affected it (-9%). It is clear who took the buyers from her: the latest “Grant” made a rapid breakthrough in second place. In the first full year of sales, 121 thousand customers chose it. Kalina, which a year ago was the leader in the market, has now closed the top three: demand for it has declined even more (-16%), and again due to the successful Granta debut. An additional confirmation of this trend is the situation with the “classics”, which last year ranked fourth in the sales ranking: the fall was as much as 71%, after which the well-deserved family was dismissed with honor.
The vacant place was taken by a foreign car - Hyundai-Solaris, which in 2011 stood one step lower. Recognized favorite "Ford Focus" behind, as before, only one place. And here's a completely unusual picture: a couple of newcomers, “Kia-Rio” and “Volkswagen Polo”, in sixth and seventh places (respectively), then rapidly losing popularity “Lada-Samara” (last year she took third place), Chevrolet Cruze (not previously included in the top ten) and Niva. “Logan” is only the eleventh - and last year was the seventh. (True, if you take the Sandero together with the hatchback, you get a solid 5th place.)
Obviously, a serious redistribution of the Russian car market has begun. Only stagnation can break it off this year. But here the forecasts diverge: some speak of insignificant growth of 5–7%, while others predict a slight drop by the same amount. Only one thing is clear: there is no clarity.
The Russian economy, as the past crisis showed, reacts very violently to “external stimuli” due to the link to the price of oil. After the European crisis of 2008, our market collapsed one and a half times! I would not want to repeat …
But all together: manufacturers, dealers, banks - while they are not too eager to meet cautious consumers, they are in no hurry to reduce prices and rates. True, several new budget models will appear on the market this year: Nissan Almera, Chevrolet Cobalt, Lada Granta-hatchback, updated Renault Logan and Sandero, etc. And for then thanks!
