A few months of work in the new conditions do not allow us to fully judge the effectiveness of the changes that have occurred, but something can already be said. And the results of the automotive industry as a whole in 2012 brought surprises, and pleasant ones. This was not only discussed at the traditional conference at the end of 2012, organized by ASM Holding OJSC.
The market for new commercial vehicles, including all types of trucks and buses, has been showing successes in recent years (Table 1). In terms of sales and growth rates, the Russian market is ahead of the European one, having passed China, India and Japan ahead. 2012 continued the positive trend: growth in sales is expected to reach 15%, which will save a place in the top five sellers.
Table 1 table 1 table 1
If we consider the structure of truck sales, then it has undergone certain changes. The sales volumes of domestic and foreign models in 2011 were almost equal, and further more foreign models will be sold. Sales of foreign cars produced in Russia and imported are growing, and they are growing at a good pace (chart 1). And this growth is taking place against the backdrop of lower sales of used cars. As for the bus sales market, it repeats the trends in the truck market, but with a big inclination towards domestic models (diagram 2).
With the exception of the failed 2009, truck production has been growing since 2000, the pace is lower than sales (1.4–1.6%), but the Russian auto industry in the cargo segment is in positive territory, unlike the same manufacturers in Europe. But the structure of production has changed - the production of foreign models is growing, and the pace of production of machines assembled in Russia is higher than the growth of production as a whole (Table 2).
The situation with the production of buses in Russia is diametrically opposite: domestic models accounted for at least 80% of the production volume, and this proportion will continue in the future. So, out of 67 thousand buses, including minibuses, domestic models accounted for 62.6 thousand, in 2011, out of 46.9 thousand manufactured cars, only 7 thousand foreign models. In 2012, of the expected 55.2 thousand buses, more than 44 thousand are domestic models.
Table 2 table 2 table 2
By the entry into the WTO, our car industry was far from having the best export-import balance. So, in 2011, imports of cars, components and spare parts from non-CIS countries and the CIS amounted to almost $ 70 billion, but export deliveries of the Russian automobile industry for the same period amounted to only $ 4 billion. Moreover, the priority of modern export is deliveries of vehicles, components and spare parts to them to the CIS countries (Table 3). Agree, it is difficult to consider it a full-fledged export. Meanwhile, the capabilities of the Soviet automobile industry made it possible to maintain the right balance. Thus, in 1987 prices, the export of automotive equipment amounted to $ 2.8 billion, which in 2011 amounted to $ 30–35 billion. In 1986-1988, there was a program under which each enterprise producing finished products should not export less than 15% of products. Newly created enterprises producing products under license were supposed to export at least 35–40% of their products. The imbalance that developed in 2011 significantly weakened the position of the Russian automobile industry just before joining the WTO. And this is all the more important, given that, compared with other BRIC countries in Russia, in the field of the automobile industry, government policy is more severe for domestic manufacturers (Table 4). This applies, first of all, to requirements for partners and investment volumes. But this is only one side of state policy - analysts of the Russian automobile market point out another, no less important side of state policy, which ensured a high level of sales - instead of the planned five, the growth was fifteen percent.
Thanks to a well-thought-out state policy, over the past 14 years, Russia has competently managed its external debt and has managed to avoid the austerity measures that have been swallowed by the European countries. The total GDP growth in Russia is expected to reach about 3.9% according to World Bank forecasts.
Sales of trucks and buses, thousand units
Sales of trucks and buses, thousand units Sales of trucks and buses, thousand units Sales of trucks and buses, thousand units
But this 3.9% increase does not explain the 15% increase in truck sales in the Russian automobile market. A successful year for the Russian automotive industry was driven by the impressive performance of automotive supply chains that were created from scratch in just 10 years and opened up access for Russian consumers to cars of world famous brands. These supply chains have been formed through the organization of relationships between global automakers, their Russian divisions, local dealers, banks and insurance companies.
Key elements of the Russian automotive supply chain have ensured the entry into the competitive Russian market of attractive car models in terms of more economical fuel consumption, safety, advanced features and capabilities; the organization of an extensive logistics system by the Russian divisions of world automakers; organization of quality customer service in dealerships; establishing close business relationships between car manufacturers and dealers with banks and insurance companies. The quality of each element of this supply chain still needs to be improved. But it is improving every day as a result of high competition between automakers for the loyalty of the Russian consumer.
And interestingly, now there is a new challenge for the Russian automotive industry that has arisen as a result of its magnificent success: what to do with a lot of old cars that need to be disposed of?
The introduction of a recycling fee instantly led to a decrease in the volume of imports of used cars. If the growth of truck imports amounted to 26% according to the results of 8 months of 2012, then according to the results of October-September 2012 the decrease amounted to 44%.
After 10 years, annually about 3 million cars and trucks will have to be disposed of, which is facilitated by the large share of old cars in the fleet (33% over 15 years), stable growth in car sales (40% over 10 years) and the growth of the fleet as a whole (not less than 20%).
Close cooperation between the three parties - the state, car manufacturers and private entrepreneurs - can serve as the basis for the creation of a recycling infrastructure. And each side has its own tasks.
- The state should pass a law that would require car owners to take the out of service car to a recycling center and collect a fine in case of deviation from obligations;
- adopt environmental standards governing the activities of new recycling enterprises;
- put in place simple administrative procedures for the disposal of vehicles;
- create a recycling agency that would oversee and oversee the creation of a recycling infrastructure. Private entrepreneurs, in turn, should analyze the places for the construction of recycling enterprises in terms of demand;
- find the optimal location for the construction of recycling enterprises, taking into account environmental legislation;
- attract financing based on a reliable forecast of revenue;
- effectively manage recycling centers by providing high quality services for the reception of cars and payment of metal cost to the car owner.
- Automakers will monitor a sufficient number of points for receiving cars using their dealer network;
- draw up long-term contracts between the car manufacturer and the recycling company in order to guarantee a sufficient “critical mass” of used cars.
Table 3 table 3 table 3
Of particular concern is the supply of counterfeit goods to enterprises in the Russian automobile industry. At least, such facts testify to how real this problem is. In 2011 and 9 months of 2012, KAMAZ OJSC and UralAZ OJSC delivered 12, 894 fabricated parts from enterprises in South Korea and China in the amount of 30 million rubles. No action was taken regarding counterfeiting. Unfortunately, the problems and inconsistencies of existing laws allow us not only to supply counterfeit goods, but also to do so almost with impunity.
The fact is that the order of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation and the Federal Customs Service of Russia “On the Approval of the Regulation on Passports of Vehicles” has not yet been fully implemented. As always, there are not enough by-laws. The almost declarative nature of the accreditation of certification bodies and testing laboratories reduces the quality of certification, making it nominal. In addition, there is no regular inspection control over the activities of certification bodies and testing laboratories. There are still no national standards for the management of procurement of automotive components, especially when delivered to the secondary market. The Customs Code of the Customs Union (as before, the Russian one) allows the issuance of vehicles for personal use without assessing its compliance with the requirements of the Customs Union until 2015-01-01. It turns out that two more years you can import substandard equipment.
In order for the counterfeit to be put up a powerful screen, a whole range of measures is required, first of all, at the legislative level.
Table 4 table 4 table 4