When, how much more expensive cars
Bets are made … against the will
The people began to ask about terms and prices at the end of May, after a dollar exchange rate jumped as much as 15% during the month. Now that the situation has more or less settled down, but the probability of a negative trend remains, listen to the experts. These lines are the digest of their opinions. We are all involuntarily involved in a big game of chance: our money is the stakes in it, whether we like it or not.
When the stock runs out
The prospect is about this. Following the appreciation of currency, car factories that purchase components for dollars and euros (and they buy almost everything) will need to purchase foreign currency for larger amounts of rubles. To get additional funds, price tags will “raise” them. To a lesser extent on cars manufactured in the Russian Federation with components of local manufacture.
The current form of the crisis can be called mild, and the moshna of manufacturers and sellers can withstand some appreciation of major currencies. Including because they once laid in the current retail price a safety stock in case of fluctuations in cash rates. The question is - how long will it last?
To look around
In order not to get into an accident, an experienced driver tries to anticipate the actions of others, suggesting the worst options. Let us look around in money matters.
On the well-being of our economy, courses on exchanges from Britain to Singapore, statements by central banks, notifications from rating agencies, and even indicators of retail sales overseas (not just cars, but in general) are being heard.
When, how much more expensive cars
If Greece is nevertheless “asked” from the eurozone, it is hard to imagine what will happen. The EU has a huge margin of safety, but panic confusion may erupt and draw many into its funnel. But the Spanish economy has also weakened, in the danger zone of Italy … Help them, financial gods! This means that the celestials will help us.
Although the oil does not evaporate …
“Hope for God …” We will be able to smell something wrong according to factors closer to our understanding - changes in the exchange rate of Russian money and oil prices (its sales, we recall, “make” from a third to half of our economy).
This is a very useful mineral for us until it ends, so we won’t go around the world. Could alert the recent forecast, which predicted a drop in its value to $ 70 per barrel. In addition, the rulers of a small Gulf state, "floating" in the oil ocean, said it would seek a reduction of almost $ 60 per barrel. Resolved - not allowed the neighbors who are building a bright future, scooping from the same ocean.
But you should not rely on the oil gods either. See the latest reports: oil prices fell to $ 90 per barrel, while optimists calculated the Russian budget for the current year at $ 115 per barrel. Wow mistake! And once oil falls, the ruble will fall simultaneously: there is a rigid coupling between one and the other. And here you look at both the dynamics of the ratio of currencies.
When, how much more expensive cars
Is the plug too small?
The most unpleasant thing for car buyers will happen after a sensitive weakening of the ruble. It would seem that this can be avoided - with our gold and currency reserves! But there is never much money. Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, whose highest competence no one doubts, recently said (and he is not alone) that the country's financial system is in worse condition than it was on the eve of the 2008 crisis. True, the current minister, Anton Siluanov, says the opposite. But we are experienced drivers, and out of a sense of self-preservation, we must assume the worst option. And remember that in the past crisis we were not well.
And the second one. It is impossible to spend gold and currency reserves on one thing - there are enough holes in the state economy. In this regard, an authoritative expert in the field of macroeconomics, former head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Viktor Gerashchenko shared that now "the Central Bank does not have much currency for internal maneuvers." This is about dollars and euros, with which the Central Bank in foreign exchange trading extinguishes the deficit of foreign currency in order to avoid weakening of our money.
Most experts are inclined to believe that hour X will come in the fall: the rate of our money may approach 36 rubles / dollar. Then they will rewrite the ruble price tags for cars …
Arithmetic of appreciation
You can estimate how much the cars will rise in price.
Let us assume that current prices have long existed at a rate of the US currency in the region of 28–29 rubles / dollar. The difference between this level and a possible fall rate of 36 rubles. (pah-pah, avert fate) - 8 rubles. Provided that a four-wheel purchase costs, say, 20 thousand dollars, it turns out: 20, 000 x 8 = 160, 000 rubles.
Value added tax is imposed on this amount, plus others, so it should be multiplied by about one and a half. It turns out, approximately, 240 thousand rubles.
Just remember that the Duma is already considering the draft Law on Recycling. Of course, they won’t delay their adoption, so each passenger car in this position will rise in price by another 20-40 thousand rubles.
