Strategy 2020: driver spending
Not in our favor, that is, to the detriment
Its goal is to achieve a leap in the domestic economy by 2020. It will take a lot of money, which is not enough in the treasury. Where to get? That's right, among the population, by raising the rates of existing taxes and fees and burdening with new ones. Hard to get the car owners.
President Medvedev instructed the drafters of the strategy to once again calculate the possible social consequences. But the last version of the project was called the final one, so it is unlikely that it will be changed “in our favor”. The consequences do not wait long.
The scenario is optimistic: gasoline rises to a chervonets
The first expected leap is the cost of operating the machines (in general, we wrote about them). We are “thrown” on fuel. "Strategy 2020" proposes to change the tax model for oil industry workers, and retail prices for fuel will skyrocket. How much? There are two options. If the petroleum products market develops according to the optimistic scenario (the climate of the competitive environment improves, the owners of refineries hasten to modernize production), the increase in gas prices for the population will amount to 8.4%, if pessimistic, they will increase by 20.4%. No one promises an ideal option.
That is not all. The second factor of the rise in price, according to the “strategists” model, is connected with the need to replenish that part of the state budget from which roads are paid. The selection of money will take place as follows: starting from the current and until 2015, the “road” excise tax on motor fuels (in the “body” of their price) should increase by at least 7–8 rubles. for 1 liter.
So, even if the most beautiful prospect comes, a gasoline with a diesel fuel will cost ten rubles more.
Plus, strategists propose the introduction of the so-called universal tax - for each kilometer run. It seems logical: let those who drive them pay for the construction of roads, and those who ride more pay more.
But diligent taxpayers remind: is it not enough that they contribute their share to the state treasury through income, transport taxes and those payments that are inherent in the retail price for fuel?
It just seems that enough is enough, as the developers of Strategy 2020 cut off: the community of motorists is the second largest consumer of budget funds after retirees. After such a comparison, car owners are obliged to overwhelm with shame and be overwhelmed with the desire to pay and pay, moreover, in silence.
But for some reason it does not overwhelm. Without taxes, of course, can not do. But for twenty years of the new history of Russia, the state, by definition, was obliged to create an economy with incentives for the dynamic growth of enterprises, the development of small and medium-sized businesses - they should be the main suppliers of contributions to the budget. This is first grade, second quarter. But twenty years were not enough, and the lion's share of GDP and budget is still formed by the severance tax - a tax on the extraction of mineral resources, that is, oil and gas.
Not enough money for the road? So stop the flight from the country of dozens of currency billions (annually!) That have not become investments. Take God's light into the billions from the “shadow” business … And the state is weak again. It’s easier to patch up budget gaps - it’s just some kind of Greece! -By reducing the well-being of the vast majority of its citizens.
As for the majority. Now in the Russian Federation 36.3 million cars, 5.5 million trucks and 900 thousand buses (which often belong to individual individuals). If we consider that there are three in an average family, then it turns out - the vast majority of the population.
Bounces: to lope?
Drivers' expenses have already jumped (or are about to jump) in all respects: gasoline, state inspection, registration of cars, compulsory motor liability insurance, and now, according to Strategy 2020, everyone will have to pay for parking anywhere - even in the courtyard of their home.
These “hops” are in the area of state responsibility. But car owners are “milked” by others. Prices for new cars are rising (over the past couple of years - from one to several hundred thousand rubles), from here the cost of hull insurance is also growing. Bounce rates in car services. The fines are increasing - they also have to be taken into account in operating costs: the one who does not drive is not mistaken.
And then, the Russians behind the wheel, like everyone else, feel inflation, the growth in the high cost of everything and everything - with frozen salaries.
It is unlikely that anyone will be on the porch, however, the automotive market may feel a drop in purchasing power. Not right now (so far only growth is expected), but in a few years, it will not collapse, but it will sag. Well-fed large cities will not stretch the entire market, and the province will certainly become less likely to travel and renew transport.
In connection with the new "strategic-2020" circumstances, did you calculate this scenario? Will it not be necessary and to what extent to reduce production at car factories in the Russian Federation, and after that at component enterprises?