CARGO PASSENGER CARS
Despite all the efforts of sellers, buyers and bankers, we have not yet reached the pre-crisis level of sales. However, we are approaching it swiftly: if, according to the results of the first quarter, our lagging behind ourselves three years ago was 21%, for the first half of the year it was 17%, now only 15% remains to be won - 326 thousand cars. Of course, this is not such a trifle - one and a half times more than it was sold in 9 months throughout Austria. But after all, we are still not 8 million, like alpine residents …
If you allow yourself to dream a little, assuming that by the end of the year the Russian market will be able to maintain growth rates of 54.8% (this figure corresponds to the third quarter), then by the end of the year the record result of 2008 will be broken. Not much - only fifty thousand cars - but still.
MARKET STRUCTURE OF NEW PASSENGER CARS BY PLACE OF PRODUCTION FOR 9 MONTHS OF 2011
By the way, in the pre-crisis year, it was not possible to keep the growth dynamics for the New Year holidays - the destructive influence of the sick global economy began to affect. Leading analysts now do not believe in miracles. So, for example, optimistic David Thomas, chairman of the AEB Automobile Committee, gives a forecast for 2.45 million cars; and this is clearly not enough for a sales record of 2.735 million.
Nothing threatens Russia’s second place in Europe: France following us stomps on the spot, already behind more than 100 thousand cars. But there is no reason to hope for leadership yet: Germany has gone far ahead and is not going to surrender. On a global scale, everything is not bad with us either - sixth place.
For three quarters, China secured an unconditional victory by absorbing 10.5 million vehicles. And the Americans, with their 9.5 million, are also unattainable. Here Japan and Brazil - these rivals are quite within our means, however, so far they are not inferior. However, let us leave aside global intentions - the time has not yet come for them. And we will return to our home, since we have much to be proud of within the borders of the Fatherland. And although these victories are not as loud as we would like, they are very important for Russia.
All tables are opened in full size on a mouse click:
LARGEST FOREIGN CAR SELLERS IN RUSSIA FOR 9 MONTHS OF 2011 *
According to the results of 9 months, domestic car production exceeded the results of the same period of 2008 by 15.4% - that is, by 173 thousand cars. Do you think AvtoVAZ finally appreciated state concern and decided to reward handsomely for the support that it provided in the most difficult times? No matter how.
The lion's share of success was provided by foreign-made cars assembled at Russian enterprises. Compared to the three quarters of last year, their production increased by 87%, while the AvtoVAZ, UAZ models and the Chevy Niva that joined them together could only rise by 24.3%.
Over the past three months, Russified foreigners have won another 1% in all-Russian production, and now they account for 61%. By the way, this is not only about quantitative indicators - in monetary terms, the gap is even more significant.
MARKET SHARE, %
It is logical that the first 15 places in popularity among cars with a foreign passport are occupied by those who have a Russian registration in it - the exception is Uzbek “Nexia” and “Matiz”, as well as British-born “Qashqai”.
The total sales of these 15 leaders exceeded the sales of all 11 domestic models - 516, 448 against 507, 401 units. Thus, the Soviet relics are by no means crushed by the number of opponents - they are slowly but surely defeated by the quality, which is now increasingly valued - even despite the high price that has to be paid for it.
In the leading group of foreign cars, the ball is controlled by the internal struggle for the sympathy of the buyer. Old idols leave the stage, yielding to the pressure of more modern models. The first place was quite expectedly submitted to “Solaris”, which is not even a year old. He not only pushed Logan, who rested on his laurels, but also pulled away from him solidly.
At year 6, the one-year-old Polo Sedan broke through. The old “Matiz”, resisting with all its might, is gradually rolling back lower and lower: the low price can no longer compensate for the low level of security and outdated design. Selflessly beloved by the people, “Focus II” is also losing ground, but a new “Focus III” has already made its way from the depths of the rating.
The top ten were temporarily abandoned by Astra - not for long, since the H version on the assembly line is gradually replaced by a car with index J. The same fate awaits Rio in the near future - orders will be accepted for the 2012 model from October 1.
HOT TEN OF THE RUSSIAN MARKET FOR 9 MONTHS OF 2011
All these perturbations directly affected the well-being of automobile companies. The most diversified of them - “Kia” regained leadership after a temporary retreat under the onslaught of “Renault”. The French could not resist and in second place, skipping ahead, “Hyundai”, put everything on the only unkillable card - “Solaris”.
“Nissan” made it to the fourth place from the bottom “dozens”, which managed to consolidate the success of “Kashkaya”, “Thiids” and “X-Trail”. Among other companies, Volkswagen is drawing attention to itself, which also relies on several of its models, though they have not reached the first roles in their classes, but together they provide him with a solid customer base.
The take-off of the Polo Sedan also contributed a lot to the 7th place. But “Ford” with his only fighter rolled back to the 8th position and waits until the “Focus III” will gain momentum and again bring the “Blue Oval” among the leaders.
STRUCTURE OF THE MARKET OF NEW CARS OF FOREIGN BRANDS IN 2010
“Come on, dear!” Says the Russian market to automobile companies. And they “give”, realizing that its capabilities are colossal. According to the Avtostat agency, only one in four Russian residents owns a personal car now, and only 50% of families own a car. And such a luxury as two or more cars is the destiny of 10-15% of the cells of society.
This means that the motorization of the population in Russia is approximately two times lower than in Europe, where now there are an average of 480 cars per 1000 inhabitants. But even these figures are not indicative: in Germany, France or Italy, more than 600 cars per thousand. And our current level corresponds to that at which developed European countries were already in the mid-70s.
The same “Avtostat” states that in the largest Russian cities (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Samara), where traffic jams practically paralyzed traffic, for every thousand inhabitants there are very few - only 330-350 - passenger cars.
“A car is not a luxury, but a means of transportation” - the slogan of Ostap Bender fell to the heart of a Russian man. Having reduced in terms of other luxury goods (their post-crisis consumption grew by only 10%), he does not want to refuse to buy a new car.
No money? Yes, our salaries are not even European, but will this stop the thirsty person? After all, there are banks! The rapid growth in sales in 2011 was supported not so much by the successful recycling program that ended in the summer, but by another government initiative - soft loans.
It extended to cars worth up to 600 thousand rubles. and played its role with dignity: according to the director of the automotive industry and agricultural engineering department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Alexei Rakhmanov, 179 thousand loans were issued in the framework of the concessional car loan from January to September - more than for the entire last year.
That is, 10% of cars found their owners precisely thanks to the help of the state. The program involved 56 models, of which only 17 belonged to AvtoVAZ. Credit fever has spread not only to financial institutions that have secured budget support.
Through Toyota Bank, for example, 12 555 cars were sold in 9 months - 116% more than in 2010, and the Moscow Bank of Sberbank issued 17.6 thousand car loans worth 8.5 billion rubles, which is 30 % more than in January-September 2010. Everything is back to square one. By the end of 2008, the share of car sales on credit had reached 46.4%, but then the financial crisis - or its clever imitation - cut off the legs of this scheme, and credit cars accounted for only 24.1% of the total number of purchases.
In 2011, according to Avtostat, the purchase of cars on borrowed funds reached the pre-crisis level and even blocked it, covering about 50% of the market for new cars. Everything seems to be wonderful - it doesn’t get better. But you still should not relax - as we could see three years ago. Take a look at the quarterly sales dynamics - isn't it painfully familiar numbers?
DYNAMICS OF SALES OF PASSENGER CARS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS QUARTER
The convulsive jumps of the ruble in the fall spoiled the good picture, which was painstakingly painted in oil for the first six months. The result was a slowdown in rapid market growth: in the second quarter, 141.9% more cars were sold than in the first, and the third quarter compared to the second quarter showed a dynamics of only 54.8%.
Banks began to be cautious with the issuance of loans of the largest category - to buyers of budget models. According to some estimates, their share decreased to 30% of the total volume of car loans. Financiers are the weakest link in the chain that runs from the assembly line to the buyer. It is they who most of all need mutual trust of all participants in the process, and they are the first to betray this trust.
It’s good that at least car companies did not panic. At least until they are in a hurry to hastily raise prices or peg them to the dollar, as happened during the crisis. After all, you can protect yourself from fluctuations in the exchange rate of friends - by developing the production of components here in Russia. Such a path, in particular, was chosen by Nissan. However, the alarm bell rang …
MANUFACTURE OF CARS IN RUSSIA, THOUSAND. PC
Three months ago, we noted that the market situation is much like 2008. Since then, fears have not been dispelled. On the contrary, new unpleasant parallels can now be drawn. For example, following the results of 9 months, the UK, Italy and Spain showed negative dynamics, with which everything started three years ago, and the percentage of sales decline in these countries is almost the same as before.
And how do you want to believe in a brighter future - that our flight will not be interrupted once again and that Russia will nevertheless come out on top in Europe - there are not so many left.
SALES OF NEW PASSENGER CARS IN EUROPE IN JANUARY-SEPTEMBER 2011 *
TOTAL
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION BY THE RESULTS OF 9 MONTHS EXCEEDED RESULTS OF THE SAME PERIOD OF 2008 BY 15.4%
THE LION SHARE OF SUCCESS IS PROVIDED BY THE MACHINES OF FOREIGN BRANDS WHICH COLLECT IN RUSSIA
COMPULSORY RACES OF THE RUBLE IN AUTUMN Spoiled - SUCH A GOOD PICTURE
SUNRISE
SMALL CLASS *
In the summer, it became obvious that “Solaris” will push back “Logan”. And so it happened. Both cars are of Russian assembly, but the Hyundai is newer and more charming in appearance. However, if you recall that “Sandero”, whose sales almost tripled over the year, is actually a “Logan” hatchback, then the total result of “Renault” looks just fantastic - exactly a quarter of the market!
“Polo” is steadily continuing its ascent and is already in 4th place, although in June it was in seventh place. It is interesting to jump to the 13th line from the 21st charming “Soul”, but in terms of growth it seems that he will not stay there for a long time and go higher.
SMALL CLASS *
THE INVASION OF TWINS
GOLF CLASS
The bifurcated “Focus” still retains first place behind its old version, while the 3rd generation model has already reached the 15th line. True, due to the higher price and stifled engines, it will be difficult for her to take the place of her predecessor in the shortest possible time - and this is a good chance for the old Nexia to show off at the head of the list for the year.
The popular “Astra” is also represented in two faces: by its incarnation, over the last quarter, it rose from 8th line to 7th place, and the second from 12th to 11th. Note that both cars are produced in Russia, and next year, Opel will be able to enter the top three leaders of the golf class. Overboard were the “Lancer” and the venturing update “Elantra”. Instead, Golf joined the company of the best.
SMALL CLASS *
REGISTRATION QUESTIONS
MIDDLE CLASS
Due to the change of generations, the Passat, which became purely German, was sold at the beginning of the year neither shakily nor rolls and entered full force only in May. However, then he successfully recouped, having lost as a result only one position. It is interesting that his much more expensive relative with the SS index did not lose his buying sympathies.
The Bavarian treshka won back the losses of the beginning of the year: the special series on the eve of the new model is being sold at interesting prices. Having received a Kaliningrad registration and having fallen in price by 70 thousand, Insignia is building up its pace. Monthly sales of it have grown one and a half times since the beginning of summer. But completely behind in anticipation of restyling “Avensis”.
MIDDLE CLASS
FAST JAPANESE
BUSINESS CLASS
The only change among the leaders was the progressive movement of Lexus-ES, which managed to reach 9th place in a year: from the middle of summer, more than a hundred copies of this model are sold every month. The second debutant A7 was satisfied with the successes achieved in the first half of the year, remaining in eighth line.
The updated Infinity-M sedan turned out to be less fortunate: behind the initial interest, fueled by a new design, there was a reassurance and a sharp decline in sales.
BUSINESS CLASS
STEAM COUPLES
MICRO, COMPACT AND MINIVAN
While “Verso” and “Wenga” going nostril to nostril in turn change places, “Zafira” is gradually increasing its advantage over “Golf” - in three months it managed to win back 0.7% of the market in the van class.
Separate sparring was started by “C3-Picasso” with “Turan”, “Rumster” with the “Volkswagen” family and “C4-Picasso” with “Es-Max”. Another couple parted: “Scenic” left the list of the top fifteen, and Galaxy was lucky to cling to the last line.
MICRO, COMPACT AND MINIVAN
HIGHLANDER. PART 1
MEDIUM AND LARGE CROSSOVERS
Having pushed past applicants, “Highlander” was established in third place. Moreover, Toyota is the only one in the top three who managed to increase its market share for the quarter. In the summer, “Captiva” dropped another notch.
The refreshing Sorento took a timid step towards his close relative, Santa Fe, driving the Lexus RX off the road. At the bottom of the standings, “S-Crosser” surrendered the position of BMW-X5.
MEDIUM AND LARGE CROSSOVERS
HABIT TO UNUSUAL
COMPACT CROSSOVERS
Since June, ASX sales have fallen by half - dealers simply did not have an updated car. The result was a failure from 3 to 5 place. Caught in a similar situation, RAV4 coped with the problems much better and retained the second position.
The unusual appearance of the “Dzhuk” has already become a familiar phenomenon on our roads - over the past quarter its sales have grown 2.5 times, and this turned out to be quite enough to jump three positions up. The Englishman “Freelander” unexpectedly lost a lot to the Korean “Aktion” - well, the new look of “San Yong” no longer causes irritation in the public.
COMPACT CROSSOVERS
LOVERS KEEP PROFESSIONALS
UNIVERSAL AND PROFESSIONAL SUV
“Lexus-GX” and “Rexton”, which went on the 14th and 15th places a year ago, didn’t come to the court and simultaneously dropped to the 17th and 18th positions. Their places were taken by "Patrol" and "Range Rover" - also not god knows what professionals.
The updated “Tuareg” gained momentum and managed to defend its slight advantage over the “Pajero” striving for victory. “Passfinder” confidently passed “Hover” - the “Chinese” is still difficult to fight on an equal footing with the “Japanese”.
UNIVERSAL AND PROFESSIONAL SUV
NUMBERS LOSE NAMES
The hopelessly outdated 2104/2105/2107 family, which a year ago showed off at the top position, is gradually losing one position after another. Here he was bypassed and “Prior”. Judging by the growth rate, soon Samara will be in third place. Against the background of the general low dynamics, UAZ cars, which are two to three times more active than AvtoVAZ models, continue to amaze. However, there are too few of them being released so that they can exert any kind of pressure on the massive Lada and Niva.
DOMESTIC MODELS
ROAD SPACE FOR LUNCH
CARGO PASSENGER CARS
After a temporary increase in sales in February-March, the BT-50 pickup seems to have hibernated - in some months the number of cars sold fell below 60 units. There is nothing surprising - the update of the model was thoroughly delayed, although the car is very good in its off-road qualities.
The Expendable L200 - the best offer among pickups - continues to rake up the market for itself. Its share in the group of utility vehicles has already exceeded 22%.
CARGO PASSENGER CARS
First person
“WE ARE READY TO SUPPORT THE SOLARIS SUPPORT GROUP”
Denis Petrunin
Since the beginning of the year, Hyundai’s business has been getting better and better: by the fall, Koreans got the second place among foreign brands in Russia, losing only to their fellow concern - Kia. Denis PETRUNIN, Managing Director of Hyundai Motor CIS, does not hide satisfaction
- In September, we sold 15, 317 new cars in Russia, including those assembled on the assembly line of our St. Petersburg plant, and became the leader among other foreign companies this month. About 60% of the total sales are accounted for by Solaris, which was originally created for domestic buyers. This model hits exactly the target - it entered the market at the right time and offers modern technology, high quality and reliability at an affordable price.
