KamAZ, MAZ
Pragmatics of the project
The news is not a sensation. Preparations for the merger began at least in the second half of 2010, and in December the topic was publicly voiced by KamAZ Director General Sergey Kogogin (Russian Technologies is the main shareholder of the company in Naberezhnye Chelny, 49.9% of the shares).
The pragmatism of Russians is to increase the production capacity of trucks, the deficit of which is still felt in Russia now, and it will become aggravated with the launch of the “cargo” disposal program (it is scheduled to be launched in 2012).
After the merger, of course, MAZ should increase its strength. A source close to the negotiations, ZR. RU, said that the parties had not yet calculated the concrete figures of the release plans, however, the growth prospect is obvious.
Taking into account the positions of the parties in the conjuncture of the Russian (first of all) and world markets, it can be assumed that the component base of Belarusian cars will be largely unified with KAMAZ, moreover, on the constructs of KAMAZ equipment. As confirmed by ZR. RU, Director of the KamAZ Public Relations Department Oleg Afanasyev:
- The transition to a single aggregate basis for car factories is always interesting. If the association takes place, it will be possible to use the industrial capabilities and experience of Belarusians to increase the production of modern engines, gearboxes and other elements of automobiles.
Market supported
It will be strange if the merger does not take place. In any case, the Russian stock market on the day it was announced reacted instantly and unequivocally: KamAZ shares on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange jumped 10%. This is a clear indicator of the approval of the transaction.
According to Sergei Chemezov, KamAZ’s shareholders were approved by Daimler (11%), EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 4%) and Troika Dialog (27.26%).
The Belarusian side as a whole accepted the merger proposal. After negotiations with the head of Russian Technologies Sergey Chemezov, the vice-premier of Belarus Vladimir Semashko even announced the proposed name of the future holding - Rosbelavto.
KamAZ
New defendants. In the appendage?
The Russian rapprochement plan involves an additional issue of KamAZ, after which the authorities of Belarus (MAZ is a fully state-owned enterprise) will be offered the following. 100% of MAZ shares are transferred to KamAZ. In exchange, Minsk receives a minority stake in the plant in Naberezhnye Chelny, but no more than 25% (minority - that is, not giving the right to directly participate in the management of the company).
The figures during the negotiations may change, but RIA Novosti observers drew attention to the remark of Sergei Chemezov: the Russians are unlikely to agree if they are offered to accept only a block package. The transaction will be subject to the acquisition of at least a controlling stake. What does it mean: KamAZ claims a dominant position in the future holding. The condition should be perceived as reasonable and adequate, reflecting the credibility of enterprises and their products in the market.
However, after negotiations with the head of Russian Technologies, Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Semashko said that Belarus did not want to lose control over MAZ and "so far it is ready to transfer only 49% of its shares to the holding." The Avtostat agency continues the quote: in addition to MAZ and KamAZ, a number of other enterprises could also be transferred to the holding, for example, Yaroslavl and Tutaevsky motor plants (shares of which are owned by Russian Technologies), as well as Belarusian Belshina, Borisov Automotive and Tractor Electrical Equipment Plant and other. Valuation of their assets has not yet been carried out. But will the figurants proposed by Mr. Semashko be useful to the holding? One cannot but heed the proposal, but it still needs to be recognized.
Bargaining: are trumps strong?
Bargaining began, and it was to be expected. Avtostat recalls S. Chemezov’s statement about the trump cards of Belarusians: other investors are interested in buying MAZ, including KamAZ’s Chinese competitors, whose entry into the Russian market through MAZ would be extremely undesirable.
In addition, you will need to find out the true price of the issue. Under the privatization program of state assets, the Minsk Automobile Plant, according to the statement of the Chairman of the State Property Committee of Belarus Georgy Kuznetsov, was estimated at $ 2.5 billion. Meanwhile, an informed source close to KamAZ shareholders claims that the fair price of MAZ is 3-4 times lower - 625 –830 million dollars
But not biased - a market valuation of the assets of a Russian company. On one of the recent trading days on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange, the value of KamAZ shares amounted to 2.05 billion dollars, and for the last major transactions - 2.5 billion.
There is reason to argue that MAZ should be several times cheaper: in terms of production and revenue, it is an order of magnitude inferior to KamAZ, authoritative sources of the Vedomosti newspaper note.
So the value of the 49% stakes offered by the Belarusian deputy prime minister contains completely different, radically different money supply.
In the context of negotiations on money and mergers, other factors have to be taken into account. The possibilities for expanding MAZ production are limited - the plant is located within Minsk. Belarus has higher political risks than Russia. In other words, experts say that the buyer of such a “product” has the right to discount.
MAZ
Pause to count wealth
Observers claim: Belarusians often start bargaining for privatized companies with overestimated estimates, and then reduce the requirements. Well, if so. However, others argue with these optimistic observations. Past high-profile trading between Russia and Belarus about oil duties, prices for Russian gas and its transit, as well as some others, diminish optimism. And it is not necessary to guess that President Lukashenko is following the “freight” negotiations. And his position has already become predictable in economic relations between our states. To balanced projects, he can answer that "he will not allow to plunder the country's national wealth."
