WHAT ARE WE WAITING FOR?
This is already getting fun. They promised to publish the concept by mid-2009. Summer has passed, and already in the fall, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that "such an program (development of the automotive industry. - IM) will be presented to the government in the first quarter of 2010." A month later, the following adjustment: “We must as a whole program … adopt in the first half of 2010.” And at the beginning of March at a meeting of the Government, the Concept was finally approved and adopted … "as a basis." According to Industry Minister Viktor Khristenko, the document has yet to be clarified and “technicalized” (expression of the Minister) within a month, and then approved.
Only a few figures are known. Taking into account the finances of foreign investors that are yet to be found, from 1.2 to 1.8 trillion should be invested in the industry by 2020. rub. But during the discussion in the government, the estimated volume of Russian investments in the industry decreased by almost 50 billion rubles - from 630 to 584 billion. Moreover, the peak of investments should fall on 2011-2012 - about 225 billion. At the same time, officials are considering only one forecast for market development - very optimistic. If everything comes true, in 10 years 3.5-3.6 million passenger cars will be sold in Russia annually. Naturally, provided that no crises will happen again, and oil and gas are ordered to continue to rise in price.
And MONEY - FREE.
From the hints of the officials and the leaked information, one could understand: the delay in the publication of the program was due to the fact that they could not determine the sources of its financing. It is clear that not one traditional Russian manufacturer has its own funds for development. And in the current conditions, foreigners are in no hurry to invest additionally in their enterprises in the Russian Federation: there is a plant, it works, and okay. So it is not known whether investors intend to invest in our auto industry. “If not, do not expect federal support, ” snapped Mr. Shuvalov.
Until those who want to not see, that is why the program for the development of the automotive industry until 2020 was rewritten several times. At first, the stake was placed on Opel, to which Sberbank of the Russian Federation was co-owned. But everyone remembers how, in early autumn, GM refused to sell the brand to the Magna-Sberbank consortium - the concept had to be changed urgently. Then they placed all hopes on the fact that the AVTOVAZ-Renault alliance would take out. They promised to introduce the new program in November, when Prime Minister Vladimir Putin personally joined in negotiations with the French partner. But the French rested: we won’t give living money - only technology. The situation is similar with the new Sollers-FIAT alliance. The Italians seem to be transmitting the platform for the promising model, but look for the money, they say, yourself …
So what is still spelled out in the new program? Even in the "unfinished" form, it is a voluminous document (more than 100 pages) with tables, graphs and diagrams. It contains the right words about the current state of the Russian automobile industry, its problems, even numbers are indicated, how much money should be invested in a particular enterprise in order to arrange the production of modern equipment in such and such quantities (which is interesting, the production numbers of a particular model are indicated with accuracy up to thousands!) … But these are just wishes. With confidence we can only say that high import duties on foreign cars will remain unchanged. Regarding customs duties, the Minister of Industry and Trade Viktor Khristenko made it clear: “Yes, we believe that we did everything absolutely right and on time. Especially regarding used cars. Russia should not be a dump for the global automotive industry. ”
WE WILL BUILD A NEW CAR INDUSTRY!
My thoughts on the new concept (when I wrote these terms, there was no approved text) and the possibilities to implement it, I will not hide, are full of pessimism. So there are reasons to doubt - previous experience influenced mood. Recall that in the absence of a clear program, the auto industry developed, as they say, according to the fire principle - from one resolution to another. Moreover, they were taken, as a rule, heavily and began to work with a terrible creak. The only real measure that had at least some impact on the market last year was the state program of soft loans. However, she earned a delay of several months, and then after the list of cars was expanded and conditions for borrowers were simplified. But all the same, the issued loans turned out to be half as much as the ministry forecasted. Another government program, very ambitiously filed, was the free transportation by rail of domestic cars to the Far East. Only about 3 thousand cars were transported (they wanted 100 thousand).
Meanwhile, Minister Viktor Khristenko praised the role of the government and its ministry: “If the state had not taken measures, the volume of car production and sales in the Russian market would have been half as much as today.” But, as the figures show, due to preferential state loans last year only 70 thousand were additionally sold with a small of 1.4 million cars, that is, about 5%. The same amount, taking into account state orders. But not 700 thousand, not 50%! In 2010, government plans to revive the car market are even more serious. First of all, due to bonuses for the disposal of old cars, the Ministry expects to sell an additional 200 thousand domestic cars (11 billion rubles have been allocated for this). About 100 thousand buyers should take preferential car loans (1 billion rubles). Plus, the purchase of automotive equipment by federal and regional authorities. In 2010, according to the Minister of Economic Development Elvira Nabiullina, 20 billion will be allocated from the budget for it. That's all for now.
Yes, it’s also supposed to help the Volga Automobile Plant and the new Sollers-FIAT alliance with money - to allocate more than 100 billion rubles to it. “In any case, this will not be a dispersal of funds from a helicopter, ” Khristenko said. I'd like to hope. Of course, the government’s concept of raising the industry is needed, but the role of the government itself as a direct participant in its implementation, I think, should be limited. The state can (and should) stimulate the automotive market, help manufacturers (not free of charge) in times of crisis, and credit promising projects that are most important for the automotive industry. Well, still finance the development of army vehicles. Everything! But the desire to steer everything and everything will not bring to good.