But the project also has opponents. They claim that such a move could bury our auto industry. Nevertheless, the government can make a “fateful” decision in the near future. Let us estimate that in this case our CAR FAN, foreign CAPITALIST and DIRECTOR of a domestic plant will benefit?
WHAT DO AUTOMOBILES WANT?
Naturally, good cars, cheap and different. But sadly, from the very first lines they will have to disappoint: in modern capitalist Russia, any government decision in the first place gives businessmen a win. The consumer, on the other hand, is regarded only as a source of funds, and even then in one perspective: "buy - not buy." From a market point of view, this is logical - charity has nothing to do with it.
Today's prices for foreign cars assembled in Russia have developed as a compromise between supply and demand. If, suppose, duties on imported components for assembling them are reduced to zero (domestic quality is simply not available in nature), then, according to economists, the price of a car can decrease by an average of 5–7%. But this does not mean that this is exactly what will happen. Why lower the price if the line is for cars? So in this situation, the cost will decrease, most likely, by a purely symbolic amount. But the choice of cars will expand: in the near future, new "assemblers" promise to come to Russia, and the preferential "customs clearance" of components is at their fingertips.
WHAT DO CAPITALISTS WANT?
First of all, assemble cars, and not produce them with us in full cycle. The pace of development of the car market in Russia is fond of hearing and partly misleading. It seems that we are again ahead of the rest. But interest is always relative. Russia today is only a potentially attractive market for global auto giants. So far, the economic and political risks are so high that foreigners are in no hurry to invest hundreds of millions of conventional units in the construction of the production base, although they make various kinds of “declarations of intent”. It is significant that last year foreign investment in automobile production in Russia turned out to be less than in the construction of dealer and service centers in Moscow alone. In other words, auto giants are happy to sell and service their cars in Russia, but they are in no hurry to produce.
Under the current conditions, the government is trying to stimulate foreigners to at least open assembly plants in the country. Such projects, of course, are not as costly as for full-fledged production, and pay off much faster. Well, in the future, maybe those who produce components will also catch up with the assemblers. That's because in the Volga region after the joint venture GM-AvtoVAZ came Bosch, Tenneco, Lear and others!
WHAT DO THE PLANT DIRECTOR WANTED?
In the late 90s, the Russian government adopted a series of laws protecting Russian automakers. But today, even according to their estimates, these laws began to slow down the development of the industry. Domestic cars from year to year lose their competitiveness. A further increase in duties on the import of inexpensive foreign cars and components is simply impossible. There is real demand that needs to be met, but supply is still extremely limited.
For example, Ford, arranging the release of its “tricks” in Russia, achieved benefits for the supply of assembly components, taking a commitment to achieve 50% localization by 2007. In the courtyard - 2005, and in Russia for the “tricks” they only make side windows, rubber mats, battery pallets and seat fillers. Even considering that the concept of “localization” includes our inexpensive labor force, half does not work out in any way, and it is unlikely to work out in the next two years. Ford would be happy to order everything for its cars to Russian manufacturers. But they are not ready to fulfill the requirements of the customer. What to do?
Both AvtoTOR, Ford, and Avtoframos, as well as TagAZ, IZH-Avto, GM-AvtoVAZ, annually increase production volumes. And that means - the number of jobs is growing, the market is developing. The main thing is that today, both here and there - in the current Russian conditions, even the assembly, and not the complete production of machines, was understood to be a profitable and attractive business for foreign investors.
Last year, Volkswagen, Nissan and Toyota made it clear that they were ready to soon begin assembling their cars in Russia if they were not required to localize production. Let us recall another thing: as soon as it became known about plans to abolish duties on components, as the head of the Renault concern Louis Schweitzer confirmed his intention to start mass production of Logan in Russia in the summer.
And why do our directors need a fee reduction? It seems to be a sharp knife for them … The fact is that foreign companies are likely to enter our market when they find a solid Russian partner who can be trusted with both money and technology. And this is precisely our benefit, since it entails the development of Western capital, the development of production and construction based on new technologies.