Naturally, we did not have these figures in our editorial office. Therefore, on the eve of the new year, we decided instead of missing statistics to propose our forecasts regarding production and sales in 2004, and at the same time to identify trends that, in our opinion, may prevail this year in the Russian market. By the way, in mid-January, when official data will appear, it will be interesting for us to evaluate the accuracy of our “predictions”.
PROPHETS IN OUR FATHERLAND
Analysts are sure that the Russian auto industry will work extremely well in 2004 and will produce a total of approximately 1, 080, 000 passenger cars, which is almost 8% more than in 2003. At the same time, the share of "old" enterprises will be about 950 thousand cars. AvtoVAZ will produce 720 thousand (which is more than planned), Izh-Avto - about 100 thousand (less than the plan), GAZ - 70 thousand. Approximately 60 thousand Oka minicars will go off the assembly lines in Naberezhnye Chelny and Serpukhov.
According to the same experts, the most noticeable quantitative leap will be made by new assembly plants. As promised, almost 55 thousand Chevrolet Niva SUVs and Viva sedans will be assembled at GM-AvtoVAZ JV, 35 thousand “tricks” in Vsevolozhsk and 25 thousand “accents” in Taganrog and "sonatas" in Kaliningrad - 15 thousand KIA, BMW, Chevrolet and Hammers. Total - 130 thousand cars, which is 2.3 times more than a year before!
The "old" industries have no reserves for growth today. The Kalina line at AvtoVAZ has not yet counted - it will only gain momentum in 2005. The main increase is expected from factories collecting foreign cars, both those that have already announced themselves, and new ones, which are expected to appear in Russia in 2005. The prerequisites for this, and very thorough, are. The Ministry of Economic Development together with the Ministry of Industry and Energy are now preparing a draft government decree on reducing customs duties on auto parts from 10–20 to 2%, and even on their partial cancellation. It is assumed that this will reduce the cost of foreign cars assembled in Russia by 7–10%, give impetus to the creation of new assembly plants, and ultimately raise the domestic auto industry to a new level, which today is losing more and more to “foreigners”. And let no one be misled that it accounts for about 60% of all cars sold in Russia in 2004. In the "money" he has long and seriously lagged behind …
We assume that "purely Russian" cars were sold for $ 6 billion, foreign cars assembled in the Russian Federation - for $ 2.7 billion, and new foreigners - for $ 6.5 billion. About another $ 2 billion in the country imported second-hand cars. It is easy to calculate: Russian citizens were ready to spend (and have spent!) On the purchase of cars more than 17 billion dollars, while our factories were able to supply cars only for the amount of 8.7 billion (and even taking into account the collected from us “Ford, Hyundai, etc.). By the way, you won’t guess which model in terms of sales (in units) in Russia can be called the “car of the year” in 2004? VAZ "seven" developed 40 years ago! These machines sold approximately 130 thousand units. For comparison: much more modern “ten” - about 90 thousand.
There are no surprises here. The first place is guaranteed to Chevrolet: we believe that it is almost 57 thousand cars sold. The main contribution here is from the JM Em AvtoVAZ joint venture, where over 55 thousand Niva and Viv were collected and sold over the year. And in 2005, the “Russian Americans” were provided with a decent margin from all competitors: the assembly is growing in Tolyatti, four new relatively inexpensive Chevroles are entering the market: Aveo, Lacetti, Evanda, and Rezzo. No one doubts that they will sell well.